MLB Baseball Betting Odds
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (9-10) at NEW YORK METS (9-9) Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New York -153 & 7 under -125
The Dodgers took the series opener 7-2 on Tuesday night, though they shouldnt expect to get that much offense in game two. The 24-year-old Harvey (4-0, 0.93 ERA) has shown why was so highly regarded as a prospect in the early going of this season. Veteran left-hander Ted Lilly takes the mound for the Dodgers, making his season debut after dealing with a shoulder injury that ended his 2012 season prematurely. Although the Mets own a slight 8-7 advantage against the Dodgers over the past three years, the Dodgers are now 5-2 at Citi Field over that span.
Lilly is 2-2 (team 3-3) with a 3.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in six career starts against the Mets. Last season, he pitched in just eight games, compiling a strong 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 5-1 record. Hes been called up quickly after injuries forced a need as he was struggling in the minors. But in three minor-league starts this year, he went 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA. If he struggles and cant go deep, the Dodgers bullpen that has a 3.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this year will be forced to play a big role. An encouraging stat for Lillys chances: the Mets are 2-5 against lefty starters this year.
Harvey has been nearly unhittable this season, even taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning a couple of starts ago. Hes given up just 10 hits and nine walks in 29 innings (0.66 WHIP), while racking up 32 K's and holding opponents to a mere .108 BA against him. In each of his four starts, hes gone at least seven innings. Thats good news for a Mets bullpen that has a 5.46 ERA this season and gave up six runs on Tuesday. New York relievers had to pitch 6.2 innings Tuesday, filling in after starter Jon Niese got injured. Harvey has never started against the Dodgers in his young career, but he has been masterful in six career starts at Citi Field, posting a 1.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 46 K's in 38 innings.
The Mets are fourth in the majors with 101 runs this season, ranking eighth in slugging (.423) and ninth in on-base percentage (.328). Leading that effort has been catcher John Buck, who is mashing with seven home runs and 22 RBI already. The Mets player with the best track record against Lilly is Marlon Byrd, who has a .471 BA in 17 career at-bats against the southpaw with a home run and 8 RBI. The Los Angeles offense has the second-fewest runs in MLB with just 61, despite posting a .344 OBP, which ranks fourth in the majors. Leading all departments of their offense is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who is hitting .377 with two home runs and 14 RBI.
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Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/27-8/292010-08-27
The final full weekend of August baseball is upon us, and for bettors, that is a fairly important benchmark, since typically, prices for favorites start to rise significantly at this point in the year. We saw it already a few times this past week in some mismatched series’. Savvy handicappers have to recognize these spots where the “chalk” may or may not be worth your betting dollar anymore. While they are typically the team in the must-win scenario, no one ever gets ahead by paying too much for something. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this weekend’s action to see where the value may actually be, and also reveal our list of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering.
Four of baseball’s six divisions go into the weekend with a four-game or less separation for the top spot. The only teams with more comfortable leads to play with over the final month are Texas, who is 8.5-games up on Oakland in the A.L. West, and San Diego, who leads San Francisco by 6-games in the N.l. West. Otherwise, you’d have to conclude that we’re all in for some exciting September races. That can be viewed two ways by a bettor of course. For one, you have the chance to bet on some high stakes games the rest of the way, a month of playoff tune-ups if you will. For two, the games involving contenders and non-contenders can often show over-inflated lines. Let’s see what we have to choose from this weekend.
In the National League, only one of the eight series’ matches two postseason contenders against one another, and it is a great series. Philadelphia, who is 3-games under .500 on the road and trails the Braves in the East by that same amount, heads to San Diego to take on the red-hot Padres, who have been nearly unbeatable at home. This series figures to show some stellar pitching matchups, starting with the opener featuring Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos. The Phils are also looking up in the wildcard standings right now but trail the Giants by just a half-game.
The rest of the N.L. slate featuring playoff contenders are series’ that are candidates for potential over-pricing. The Cardinals will be in Washington and expected to be sizeable favorites in all three games. However, note that St. Louis is just 3-8 in its L11 games and already lost the series opener on Thursday. The Reds are hosting the Cubs, and returning home for the first time after a successful 6-3 West coast trip. The Cubs played well this week in Washington but are still 20-games under .500 and have begun rebuilding. The Braves, off a sweep at the hands of Colorado, play host to the pesky Marlins, whom they’ve had a competitive rivalry with over the last few years. Florida is hot, 7-2 in its L9 games. Finally, the Giants will be at home hosting the Diamondbacks, who are an ugly 20-42 on the road, including 0-3 in San Francisco this season.
The American League features one huge high profile series, and it could be do or die for the Red Sox in that matchup, as they take to the road in Tampa. Boston is 5.5-games back of both the A.L. East and wildcard leads heading into the weekend, but needs to improve its 4-8 record versus the Rays. Boston could reduce those deficits over the next 13 days. After this series ends Sunday, the Red Sox and Rays will meet for the final time in the regular season from Sept. 6-8 at Fenway Park.
While that series is going on, the Rays will have their eye on the scoreboard and what is happening in Chicago, where the White Sox will be hosting the Yankees. New York is deadlocked with Tampa atop the East and for the league’s best overall mark, however, the series is just as important, or perhaps even more important to the Sox, who trail the Twins by 3.5-games in the Central. Minnesota is in Seattle, so it clearly has the edge on paper this weekend. Finally, in the A.L. West, Texas puts its 8.5-game lead on the line when it hosts the A’s, its closest competitor. This could be the last gasp for Oakland in 2010.
It figures to be a great weekend of playoff-like baseball. Here’s a look at the Top StatFox Power Trends that will impact the action.
ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON
ST LOUIS is 2-11 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)
CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 21-6 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 6.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)
HOUSTON at NY METS
NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)
FLORIDA at ATLANTA
FLORIDA is 17-8 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 21-10 OVER (+10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 15-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game this season. The average score was COLORADO 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 22-12 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 17-8 OVER (+8.4 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at TORONTO
DETROIT is 20-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 83-128 (-37.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at TAMPA BAY
BOSTON is 7-24 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)
OAKLAND at TEXAS
OAKLAND is 14-5 UNDER (+8.6 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 34-23 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS
BALTIMORE is 10-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at SEATTLE
MINNESOTA is 44-25 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Boston visits New York for first time in ‘10
The New York Yankees are coming off one of their most baffling losses in years, but they don't have time to dwell on it with a series against their archrivals looming. The Yankees look to bounce back when they open a two-game series against the Boston Red Sox in their first meeting of the season in the Bronx on Monday night. The hosts are a pricey -190 favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Leading Minnesota 3-1 in the eighth inning Sunday, New York (24-13) was on the verge of sweeping a three-game series until closer Mariano Rivera surrendered a bases loaded walk and grand slam. It was the first grand slam off Rivera in eight years. The Yankees fell 6-3, losing for the third time in 15 home games.
New York opened this season by taking two of three in Boston and also won two of three at Fenway Park last weekend, scoring 24 runs in the victories. Mark Teixeira has driven in eight runs against the Red Sox and Nick Swisher has knocked in nine.
Phil Hughes (5-0, 1.38 ERA) looks to set the tone for this series when he takes the ball for the Yankees. His team is 5-1 in his six starts this season, producing 3.2 units of betting profit. Hughes, the team's No. 5 starter, leads the AL in ERA and opponents' batting average (.165), and has 39 strikeouts in 39 innings. He has a 0.86 ERA in winning his last three starts.
While Hughes has looked sharp in all six of his starts, Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35) will take the mound following his first impressive outing of the year. Matsuzaka, who started the year on the disabled list with a neck strain, recorded a 9.90 ERA in his first two outings before limiting Toronto to one run and three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 win Tuesday. The right-hander struck out nine and walked none.
Matsuzaka pitched well in his only start against New York last season, allowing one run and six hits in seven innings of a 3-0 loss Sept. 26 in the Bronx.
Boston dropped two of three in Detroit over the weekend, falling 5-1 on Sunday. The Red Sox, who have lost five of six on the road, went 2-7 at Yankee Stadium last season.
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is expected to be back in the lineup for this series after being held out Sunday to rest his right knee. He was 2 for 11 in the last series against the Yankees and is hitless in 11 career at-bats against Hughes.
The two most potent StatFox Betting Trends available for tonight’s contest favor the Yankees, and both stem from what figures to be continued struggles by Boston to produce offensively…
• BOSTON is 19-31 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
• NY YANKEES are 56-18 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
The StatFox Power Line indicates New York should be a -188 favorite. Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET and you can find the game on ESPN.